El pronóstico differs from the potential sales of the company sales. This sets out what are the actual sales of the company to a certain level of marketing effort of the company, while evaluating sales potential which sales are possible at various levels of marketing effort, assuming that there are certain environmental conditions .
is also known as the technique that allows you to calculate sales projections in a fast and reliable, using as sources of data, whether inventory transactions or sales turnover. Allows us to estimate the future demand based on historical information generated by the movement of goods the Inventory Control module sales or billing module.
Advantages:
support decision making by the Marketing Managers, Sales and Production to provide them with consistent and accurate information, which is calculated using predictive mathematical models, historical data of sales performance and trial of the executives involved representatives from each department of the company.
Safer management of information relating to sales of the company.
Great flexibility in forecasting and to create and compare multiple scenarios for purposes of analysis of projected sales.
decisions Supports Sales department in an efficient and timely guidelines to predict the products and the claims set out in the Master Production Plan.
generally accepted techniques for forecasting fall into five categories: executive opinion surveys, time series analysis, regression analysis and market testing. The choice of method or methods depend on the costs involved, the purpose of forecasting, reliability and consistency of historical sales data, the time available to make the forecast, the type of product, market characteristics, the availability of the necessary information and expertise of those responding to the forecast. The usual practice is for companies to combine several forecasting techniques. Executive Judgement
intuition is based on one or more senior executives in relation to stable demand products. The disadvantage is that it relies solely on the past and is influenced by recent events.
Forecast Survey
Clients Useful for companies with few customers. Asked what type and quantities of products they intend to buy for a certain period. Industrial customers tend to give more accurate estimates. These polls reflect the intentions of purchase, but no actual purchases.
Survey Forecast Sales Force
Vendors estimate the expected sales in their territories for a certain period. The sum of individual estimates make the prognosis of the Company or the Division. The disadvantage is the tendency of sellers to make very conservative estimates that would facilitate obtaining future commissions and bonuses.
The Delphi Method (Delphi)
experts are hired to make firm forecasts that the average and returns them to refine the individual estimates. The procedure can be repeated several times until the experts - working alone - come to a consensus forecast. The method is highly accurate.
Time Series Analysis
historical data are used sales of the company to spot trends seasonal, cyclical and random or erratic. Is an effective method of reasonably stable demand products. Using moving averages to determine first whether there is present a seasonal factor. With a simple linear regression trend line determined data to establish whether there is present a factor cyclical. The random factor will be present if erratic behavior can be attributed to sales due to random events do not recur.
Regression Analysis
is to find a relationship between historical sales (dependent variable) and one or more independent variables such as population, per capita income or gross domestic product (GDP). This method can be useful when you have historical data that cover long periods of time. It is inefficient to forecast sales of new products.
Market Test market a product is available to guests one or several areas of inquiry. Then measure purchases and consumer response to different marketing mixes. Based on this information is projecting sales to larger geographic units. It is useful to forecast sales of new products or existing products in new territories. These tests are expensive in time and money, and alert the competition.
Source: http://ricoverimarketing.americas.tripod.com/RicoveriMarketing/id23.html
is also known as the technique that allows you to calculate sales projections in a fast and reliable, using as sources of data, whether inventory transactions or sales turnover. Allows us to estimate the future demand based on historical information generated by the movement of goods the Inventory Control module sales or billing module.
Advantages:
support decision making by the Marketing Managers, Sales and Production to provide them with consistent and accurate information, which is calculated using predictive mathematical models, historical data of sales performance and trial of the executives involved representatives from each department of the company.
Safer management of information relating to sales of the company.
Great flexibility in forecasting and to create and compare multiple scenarios for purposes of analysis of projected sales.
decisions Supports Sales department in an efficient and timely guidelines to predict the products and the claims set out in the Master Production Plan.
generally accepted techniques for forecasting fall into five categories: executive opinion surveys, time series analysis, regression analysis and market testing. The choice of method or methods depend on the costs involved, the purpose of forecasting, reliability and consistency of historical sales data, the time available to make the forecast, the type of product, market characteristics, the availability of the necessary information and expertise of those responding to the forecast. The usual practice is for companies to combine several forecasting techniques. Executive Judgement
intuition is based on one or more senior executives in relation to stable demand products. The disadvantage is that it relies solely on the past and is influenced by recent events.
Forecast Survey
Clients Useful for companies with few customers. Asked what type and quantities of products they intend to buy for a certain period. Industrial customers tend to give more accurate estimates. These polls reflect the intentions of purchase, but no actual purchases.
Survey Forecast Sales Force
Vendors estimate the expected sales in their territories for a certain period. The sum of individual estimates make the prognosis of the Company or the Division. The disadvantage is the tendency of sellers to make very conservative estimates that would facilitate obtaining future commissions and bonuses.
The Delphi Method (Delphi)
experts are hired to make firm forecasts that the average and returns them to refine the individual estimates. The procedure can be repeated several times until the experts - working alone - come to a consensus forecast. The method is highly accurate.
Time Series Analysis
historical data are used sales of the company to spot trends seasonal, cyclical and random or erratic. Is an effective method of reasonably stable demand products. Using moving averages to determine first whether there is present a seasonal factor. With a simple linear regression trend line determined data to establish whether there is present a factor cyclical. The random factor will be present if erratic behavior can be attributed to sales due to random events do not recur.
Regression Analysis
is to find a relationship between historical sales (dependent variable) and one or more independent variables such as population, per capita income or gross domestic product (GDP). This method can be useful when you have historical data that cover long periods of time. It is inefficient to forecast sales of new products.
Market Test market a product is available to guests one or several areas of inquiry. Then measure purchases and consumer response to different marketing mixes. Based on this information is projecting sales to larger geographic units. It is useful to forecast sales of new products or existing products in new territories. These tests are expensive in time and money, and alert the competition.
Source: http://ricoverimarketing.americas.tripod.com/RicoveriMarketing/id23.html
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